Have property prices already peaked, and is now the right time to buy?
It’s a question many buyers are asking, particularly as interest rates remain elevated and recent Federal Budget changes begin to reshape the property landscape.
While it’s difficult to predict exactly where the market will peak or trough, property decisions are rarely about short-term timing alone. For many buyers, the focus is on longer-term positioning, finance structure, and securing the right property for their circumstances.
With that in mind, here are some key insights into the current market environment.
Price growth is moderating
Recent data indicates that price growth across Australia is beginning to ease.
According to Cotality, all capital cities recorded a slower pace of growth in April, with the national home value index rising by 0.3%, the slowest monthly increase since early 2025.
A combination of factors is contributing to this shift, including affordability constraints, borrowing capacity limits, and broader economic conditions such as interest rates and inflation.
A fragmented property market
While overall growth is slowing, the market is far from uniform.
Sydney and Melbourne have seen values ease slightly, with both markets sitting below their recent peaks. In contrast, Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide continue to record growth, albeit at a more measured pace.
This highlights an important point: property markets are highly location-specific. Performance can vary significantly depending on the city, suburb and price point.
Shifting buyer demand
Buyer behaviour is also evolving.
Consumer confidence has declined, with recent data showing one of the lowest readings on record. This is being reflected in softer sales activity and a more cautious approach from buyers.
At the same time, listing volumes are beginning to increase in some markets, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. This may provide buyers with more choice compared to the tighter conditions seen previously.
Auction clearance rates have also moderated, suggesting a more balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers.
Different performance across price points
Another trend emerging is the divergence between different segments of the market.
Lower-priced properties have generally shown stronger growth compared to higher-end properties. This may reflect borrowing constraints, as well as continued support for first home buyers through government initiatives.
In some markets, this gap is becoming more pronounced, reinforcing the importance of understanding where demand is concentrated.
Regional markets showing resilience
Regional areas have continued to demonstrate relative resilience.
Over the first part of 2026, regional markets have outperformed capital cities, supported by affordability and ongoing population movement.
While conditions can vary widely between locations, this trend highlights the broader diversity across the Australian property landscape.
The outlook ahead
Looking forward, most forecasts suggest continued, but more moderate, growth.
Earlier projections pointed to stronger gains, however these have been revised lower in response to ongoing economic uncertainty, including inflation and global factors.
Current estimates suggest growth in the range of 2–3% across capital cities this year.
Overall, the conditions that drove stronger growth in 2025 appear to have eased, with higher interest rates, policy changes, and more cautious buyers contributing to a more balanced market.
So, is now the right time to buy?
The answer will depend on your individual circumstances, goals and time horizon.
While affordability challenges remain, a more measured market can also present opportunities, particularly for buyers who are well-prepared and understand their borrowing capacity.
Rather than trying to time the market perfectly, it may be more valuable to focus on securing the right property and structuring your finance appropriately.
Speak to Ironbark Group
If you’re considering your next move, having clarity around your finance options can make a significant difference.
At Ironbark Group, we work with you to understand your position, compare lenders, and structure a loan that aligns with your goals, whether you’re purchasing your first home, upgrading, or investing.
If you’d like a second opinion on your borrowing capacity or current loan structure, get in touch with our team today.